Obi Wan Appears

There has been another Obi Wan Kenobi sighting over at KerrySpot. Obviously at this late date the questions are about the current polls and does President Bush or Senator Kerry have a chance.

Obi Wan doesn't think so ("unless there is a sudden and big break to Kerry tonight"). He believes the more important recent factor is the re-emergence of Osama Bin Laden.

This weekend, voters were ‘digesting’ the bin Laden tape, a process that continued as they came back to work on Monday, and talked around the water cooler, listened to the radio, talked to coworkers, etc.

Each time there has been a significant event in the campaign - the conventions, each one of the debates - the poll numbers have returned to a small but significant, outside-the-margin of error lead over Kerry within about four or five days. During these initial events, the polls have bounced around, sometimes showing Kerry surging, but the numbers always settle back to the Bush 49ish Kerry 44ish area.

So, the bin Laden tape appears, and is the equivalent of one of the debates, or a vice-presidential pick, or some other event that focuses the public’s attention. They think about it Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday - and on Tuesday, were tomorrow to be a normal Election Day, it would return to that Bush ahead by four or five points again.

You can read the whole thing at the link above.